UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
49%
O'Brien
51%
Wellisch
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JO
Jake O'Brien
"Irish"
15 – 4
6'3"76" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 15
CW
Christian Wellisch
"The Hungarian Nightmare"
8 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'2"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Wellisch

This is a genuine toss-up — O'Brien at 49% vs Wellisch at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Wellisch throws more volume but O'Brien connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

O'Brien's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Wellisch has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

O'Brien
Wellisch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
+77"
41+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
O'Brien
Wellisch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.6
15.3
42.4
Performance Avg
39.7
33
Quality of Victory
40
50
Momentum Score
51
O'Brien
Wellisch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.4
33%
Strike Accuracy
26%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
14
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance16
0Clinch1
0Ground0
O'Brien
Wellisch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
O'Brien
Wellisch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
5/13 fights
O'Brien
Wellisch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
O'Brien
Wellisch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

O'Brien
Wellisch
Striking3.6 / 0.8Volume7.1 / 4.8Grappling1.8 / 5.2Wrestling1.3 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure3.5 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
O'Brien
Strike Zones
Wellisch
O'Brien
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Wellisch
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯O'Brien targets the head (100% of attacks) — Wellisch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Wellisch targets the head (82% of attacks) — O'Brien absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

O'Brien
RND
Wellisch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

O'Brien · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.2W4.5W4.5W3.5L1.5L4.5W4.5L2006-082007-012008-072009-07
WinLossTrend

Wellisch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0101.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L5.5L2006-082006-122007-092008-052009-01
WinLossTrend

O'Brien · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jon JonesRating 4.5
Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
W · Dec · R3
Christian WellischRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 · 2009-01
L · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
L · KO · R2
Andrei ArlovskiRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
W · Dec · R3
Heath HerringRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01

Wellisch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake O'BrienRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 · 2009-01
L · KO · R1
Shane CarwinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05
W · Sub · R1
Scott JunkRating 5
Submission
UFC 76: Knockout · 2007-09
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PeroshRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2 · 2006-12
L · KO · R1
Cheick KongoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral · 2006-08

News & Media

Jake O'Brien · Christian Wellisch
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