UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Melbourne, Australia
5 Oct 2019
Welterweight
VS
95%
Matthews
5%
Akman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
Matthews is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Matthews has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 37 points.
Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Matthews
Akman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
72"
31+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Matthews
Akman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
2.7
48.3
Performance Avg
0.0
37
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Matthews
Akman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
25%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
2
9
Body
3
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance1
5Clinch4
0Ground0
Matthews
Akman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Akman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
2/8 fights
Matthews
Akman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Matthews
Akman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Akman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MatthewsAkman
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedAkman
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (42% of attacks) — Akman absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Akman targets the body (60% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Akman
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Akman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Akman · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Decision
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10
L · Dec · R3
Sergey KhandozhkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06