UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
Los Angeles, USA
4 Jun 2016
Lightweight
VS
52%
Reyes
48%
Ma
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reyes
This is a genuine toss-up — Reyes at 52% vs Ma at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Reyes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Reyes throws more volume but Ma connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Reyes's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ma has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reyes
Ma
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
71"+
Reach
70"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Reyes
Ma
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.8
15.5
49.2
Performance Avg
37.0
49
Quality of Victory
37
50
Momentum Score
78
Reyes
Ma
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
0.8
35%
Strike Accuracy
35%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
4
Body
1
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance8
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Reyes
Ma
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reyes
Ma
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
30
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/15 fights
Chin rating based on
8/27 fights
Reyes
Ma
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
78
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Reyes
Ma
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
33%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reyes
Ma
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
ReyesMa
Strike Zones
Reyes
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedMa
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reyes targets the head (53% of attacks) — Ma absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Ma targets the head (50% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reyes
RND
Ma
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Ma · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Reyes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Damir HadzovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
James VickRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
Ma · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Omar MoralesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12
L · R2
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.8UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Devonte SmithRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Damien BrownRating 4.5Decision
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · KO · R1
Takanori GomiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09