UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Glasgow, United Kingdom
16 Jul 2017
Welterweight
VS
97%
Roberts
3%
Nash
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Roberts
Roberts is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Roberts has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Nash has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Roberts's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nash has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Roberts
Nash
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
38
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Roberts
Nash
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.8
1.0
45.6
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
45
Momentum Score
0
Roberts
Nash
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.0
38%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
8
4
Body
2
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
11Distance11
2Clinch3
1Ground0
Roberts
Nash
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Roberts
Nash
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/26 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Roberts
Nash
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Roberts
Nash
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Roberts
Nash
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
RobertsNash
Strike Zones
Roberts
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedNash
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Roberts targets the head (71% of attacks) — Nash absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Nash targets the head (57% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Roberts
RND
Nash
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Roberts · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Nash · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
Roberts · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Jonny ParsonsRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Francisco TrinaldoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Ramazan EmeevRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
W · KO · R2
Zelim ImadaevRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
Nash · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Song KenanRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11
L · KO · R2
Danny RobertsRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
L · KO · R2
Li JingliangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01