UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Perth, Australia
10 Feb 2018
Middleweight
VS
2%
Wilkinson
98%
Adesanya
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:37
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Adesanya
Adesanya is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 62 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Adesanya has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 56 points.
Striking split: Wilkinson throws more volume but Adesanya connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Wilkinson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Adesanya has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
80"
Reach
80"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.6
63.4
0.0
Performance Avg
61.2
0
Quality of Victory
56
0
Momentum Score
100
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
30
0
Body
10
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance21
2Clinch21
0Ground0
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/13 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
39%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wilkinson
Adesanya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
WilkinsonAdesanya
Strike Zones
Wilkinson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
42 absorbedAdesanya
Attacking
42 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wilkinson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Adesanya absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Adesanya targets the head (71% of attacks) — Wilkinson absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wilkinson
RND
Adesanya
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Wilkinson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Adesanya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Wilkinson · Last 2
L · KO · R2
Israel AdesanyaRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
L · KO · R2
Siyar BahadurzadaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
Adesanya · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Joe PyferRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Nassourdine ImavovRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Sub · R4
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.3Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
W · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 7.2KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04