UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Lightweight
VS
6%
Yahya
94%
Fernandes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Fernandes
Fernandes is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 63 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Fernandes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 48 points.
Fernandes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Yahya's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Yahya
Fernandes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
73"
Reach
73"
32
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Yahya
Fernandes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
4.3
67.2
0.0
Performance Avg
59.0
0
Quality of Victory
48
0
Momentum Score
87
Yahya
Fernandes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.6
36%
Strike Accuracy
57%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
21
0
Body
6
2
Leg
10
RangeRange
4Distance29
0Clinch0
0Ground8
Yahya
Fernandes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Yahya
Fernandes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Yahya
Fernandes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
87
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Yahya
Fernandes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Yahya
Fernandes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
YahyaFernandes
Strike Zones
Yahya
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedFernandes
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Yahya targets the head (50% of attacks) — Fernandes absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Fernandes targets the head (57% of attacks) — Yahya absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Yahya
RND
Fernandes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Yahya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Fernandes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Yahya · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Steven NguyenRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R1
Kaue FernandesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Trevor PeekRating 5.8Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Fernandes · Last 4
W · KO · R1
Harry HardwickRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Mohammad YahyaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Marc DiakieseRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11