UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
Las Vegas, USA
4 Dec 2021
Bantamweight
VS
43%
Smolka
57%
Morales
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:02
LS
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17 – 9
5'9"68" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
VM
Vince Morales
"Vandetta"
16 – 11
Well-Rounded6-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Morales

This is a genuine toss-up — Smolka at 43% vs Morales at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smolka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Smolka's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Smolka
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smolka
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
34.6
46.5
Performance Avg
32.0
46
Quality of Victory
37
60
Momentum Score
30
Smolka
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.6
51%
Strike Accuracy
38%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
16
10
Body
8
8
Leg
3
RangeRange
19Distance18
4Clinch4
0Ground5
Smolka
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smolka
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
62
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Smolka
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
30
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Smolka
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smolka
Morales
Striking5.9 / 3.8Volume2.9 / 5.8Grappling2.6 / 1.6Wrestling1.8 / 1.1Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Smolka
Strike Zones
Morales
Smolka
Attacking
5HEAD10BODY8LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD8BODY3LEGS27 absorbed
Morales
Attacking
16HEAD8BODY3LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD10BODY8LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smolka targets the body (43% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (59% of attacks) — Smolka absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smolka
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Smolka · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.4L5.5L5.6L5.7L5.9W1.7L5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L4.8L2014-012016-072018-112021-122022-05
WinLossTrend

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0106.8L5.6W5.5L3.2L4.5W5.0W6.0L5.5L6.2L7.4L7.1L6.0L2018-112020-052022-052025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Smolka · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
Vince MoralesRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Jose QuinonezRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R1
Casey KenneyRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Ryan MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09

Morales · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Elijah SmithRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11

News & Media

Louis Smolka · Vince Morales
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