UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad
Las Vegas, USA
16 Apr 2022
Heavyweight
VS
51%
Barnett
49%
Buday
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 1:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barnett
This is a genuine toss-up — Barnett at 51% vs Buday at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barnett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Striking split: Barnett throws more volume but Buday connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barnett's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Barnett
Buday
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+77"
39
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barnett
Buday
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.9
54.5
46.3
Performance Avg
52.5
55
Quality of Victory
29
65
Momentum Score
78
Barnett
Buday
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
53%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
9
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
2Clinch5
0Ground4
Barnett
Buday
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barnett
Buday
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/33 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Barnett
Buday
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Barnett
Buday
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
14%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barnett
Buday
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
BarnettBuday
Strike Zones
Barnett
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedBuday
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barnett targets the head (75% of attacks) — Buday absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Buday targets the head (82% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barnett
RND
Buday
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barnett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Buday · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Barnett · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Hamdy AbdelwahabRating 6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5Decision
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W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 5.2KO/TKO
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Buday · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Marcus BuchechaRating 4.5Decision
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Shamil GazievRating 3.4KO/TKO
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W · Sub · R1
Josh ParisianRating 5.1Submission
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