UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Featherweight
VS
42%
Swanson
58%
Ortega
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:22
Cub
Cub Swanson
31 – 14
5'8"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide35 yrsSwitch69" reach5'8"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortega

This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 42% vs Ortega at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Swanson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Swanson
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
42
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Swanson
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
62.1
48.8
Performance Avg
53.7
40
Quality of Victory
48
56
Momentum Score
80
Swanson
Ortega
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
40%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
4
11
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
27Distance6
3Clinch2
0Ground0
Swanson
Ortega
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
14/21 fights
Swanson
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
80
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Swanson
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Swanson
Ortega
Striking6.2 / 5.0Volume5.2 / 2.2Grappling1.2 / 4.3Wrestling0.8 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure5.3 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Swanson
Strike Zones
Ortega
Swanson
Attacking
15HEAD11BODY4LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Ortega
Attacking
4HEAD4BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD11BODY4LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ortega targets the head (50% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Swanson
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0

Swanson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L5.2W5.2W6.4W5.8W5.5W5.0W4.0L5.1L4.5W4.5W6.3W4.5W3.5L5.5L2.3L5.5L5.3W6.1W2.5L5.5W3.3L4.6W6.2L6.7W5.7W2011-112014-112018-042022-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Swanson · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

News & Media

Cub Swanson · Brian Ortega
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