UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Tampa, USA
12 Oct 2019
Welterweight
VS
97%
Baeza
3%
Aldana
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Baeza
Baeza is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Baeza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 53 points.
Baeza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Baeza's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Aldana has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Baeza
Aldana
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Baeza
Aldana
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.1
1.5
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
53
Quality of Victory
0
39
Momentum Score
0
Baeza
Aldana
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
36%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
1
Body
0
6
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance4
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Baeza
Aldana
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baeza
Aldana
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
3/7 fights
Baeza
Aldana
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Baeza
Aldana
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baeza
Aldana
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BaezaAldana
Strike Zones
Baeza
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedAldana
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baeza targets the head (67% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Aldana targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Baeza absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baeza
RND
Aldana
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Baeza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Aldana · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Baeza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5Decision
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UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
Aldana · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5Decision
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Song KenanRating 3.1KO/TKO
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