METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Tampa, USA
12 Oct 2019
Welterweight
VS
97%
Baeza
3%
Aldana
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:32
★ Official Result
Miguel BaezawinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:32
def. Hector Aldana · UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Baeza
→
Actual result
Baeza wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Baeza is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Baeza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 53 points.
Risk flags
Baeza's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Aldana has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaezaAldana
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Baeza
Aldana
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Baeza
Aldana
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.1
1.5
49.0
Performance Avg
0.0
53
Quality of Victory
0
39
Momentum Score
0
Baeza
Aldana
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
8.3
Style: Pressure
0.0
0.9
Style: Volume
0.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
1
Body
0
6
Leg
4
RangeRange
15Distance4
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Baeza
Aldana
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Baeza
Aldana
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
3/7 fights
Baeza
Aldana
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Baeza
Aldana
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Baeza
Aldana
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BaezaAldana
Strike Zones
Baeza
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedAldana
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Baeza targets the head (67% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Aldana targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Baeza absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Baeza
RND
Aldana
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Baeza · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Andre FialhoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
L · KO · R3
Khaos WilliamsKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
W · Sub · R2
Takashi SatoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
Aldana · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliDecision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
L · KO · R2
Song KenanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06