UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Las Vegas, USA
2 Feb 2013
Lightweight
VS
49%
Tibau
51%
Dunham
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
GT
Gleison Tibau
33 – 14
5'10"71" reachSouthpaw42 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
ED
Evan Dunham
18 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dunham

This is a genuine toss-up — Tibau at 49% vs Dunham at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Dunham has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tibau's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dunham has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tibau
Dunham
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"+
Reach
70"
42+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Tibau
Dunham
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
16.2
43.2
Performance Avg
40.1
34
Quality of Victory
30
74
Momentum Score
100
Tibau
Dunham
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.5
35%
Strike Accuracy
41%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
39
4
Body
6
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance36
3Clinch9
0Ground0
Tibau
Dunham
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tibau
Dunham
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
28/47 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Tibau
Dunham
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Tibau
Dunham
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
18%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tibau
Dunham
Striking1.8 / 2.0Volume6.6 / 6.9Grappling3.6 / 2.5Wrestling2.5 / 1.7Submission2.5 / 0.9Pressure3.9 / 2.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
Tibau
Strike Zones
Dunham
Tibau
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD6BODY0LEGS45 absorbed
Dunham
Attacking
39HEAD6BODY0LEGS45 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tibau targets the head (67% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Dunham targets the head (87% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tibau
RND
Dunham
0/0R00/0

Tibau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W2.0L4.0L3.5L5.5L2006-112009-042011-112014-072018-06
WinLossTrend

Dunham · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.2W5.5L4.5W5.7L2.8L2.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W1.5L2.8L1.9L2009-022011-012013-052015-122020-06
WinLossTrend

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

Dunham · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Herbert BurnsRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R1
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Upcoming
Beneil Dariush
Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

News & Media

Gleison Tibau · Evan Dunham
← Back to fights