METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Women's Bantamweight
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Women's Bantamweight
VS
42%
Pennington
58%
Pena
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Julianna PenawinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Raquel Pennington · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pena
→
Actual result
Pena wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Pennington at 42% vs Pena at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Risk flags
Pennington's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pena has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PenningtonPena
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pennington
Pena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+69"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Pena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.8
65.6
46.8
Performance Avg
58.0
32
Quality of Victory
52
80
Momentum Score
100
Pennington
Pena
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
3.7
Style: Pressure
5.5
7.5
Style: Volume
5.3
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
24
8
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
34Distance27
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Pennington
Pena
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
2.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pennington
Pena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
62
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Pennington
Pena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
100
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Pennington
Pena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
23%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pennington
Pena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
PenningtonPena
Strike Zones
Pennington
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedPena
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (74% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Pena targets the head (89% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pennington
RND
Pena
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pennington · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaDecision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddDecision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonSubmission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonDecision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesDecision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesSubmission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannSubmission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01