★ Championship Bout · Women's Bantamweight
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Salt Lake City, USA
5 Oct 2024
Women's Bantamweight
VS
42%
Pennington
58%
Pena
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Raquel
Raquel Pennington
"Rocky"
16 – 10
5'7"67" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 47
Julianna
Julianna Pena
"The Venezuelan Vixen"
13 – 6
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pena

This is a genuine toss-up — Pennington at 42% vs Pena at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Striking split: Pena throws more volume but Pennington connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Pennington's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pena has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pennington
Pena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+69"
37
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pennington
Pena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.8
65.6
46.8
Performance Avg
58.0
32
Quality of Victory
52
80
Momentum Score
100
Pennington
Pena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
24
8
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
34Distance27
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Pennington
Pena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.7
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
2.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
3
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pennington
Pena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
62
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
10 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Pennington
Pena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
100
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Pennington
Pena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
23%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pennington
Pena
Striking1.4 / 3.8Volume7.5 / 5.3Grappling3.7 / 3.2Wrestling2.6 / 2.2Submission2.3 / 2.5Pressure3.7 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
2.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Pennington
Strike Zones
Pena
Pennington
Attacking
26HEAD8BODY1LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD3BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Pena
Attacking
24HEAD3BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD8BODY1LEGS35 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pennington targets the head (74% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Pena targets the head (89% of attacks) — Pennington absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pennington
RND
Pena
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Pennington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W6.3L5.0W5.6L6.0W4.5W4.5W5.4W5.2L6.7L5.3W5.6L4.5W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.9W5.1W7.0L2013-112016-042019-072022-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Pena · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.0W4.5W4.5W3.5L4.5W5.2L5.5W6.3W6.7L5.1W4.3L2013-112016-072020-102022-072025-06
WinLossTrend

Pennington · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Julianna PenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Aspen LaddRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Sub · R2
Macy ChiassonRating 6.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

Pena · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.3
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01

News & Media

Raquel Pennington · Julianna Pena
← Back to fights