★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Lightweight
VS
21%
Alvarez
79%
McGregor
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: McGregor
McGregor is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Alvarez throws more volume but McGregor connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alvarez
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alvarez
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
74.4
52.9
Performance Avg
68.9
50
Quality of Victory
67
66
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
McGregor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
56%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
9
2
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance11
0Clinch2
0Ground1
Alvarez
McGregor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Alvarez
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Alvarez
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
AlvarezMcGregor
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the body (67% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (64% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
McGregor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
McGregor · Last 5
Upcoming
Max HollowayUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10