UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Lightweight
VS
49%
Hooper
51%
Hernandez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:58
Chase
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
16 – 5
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw26 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Alexander
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
18 – 9
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'9"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hernandez

This is a genuine toss-up — Hooper at 49% vs Hernandez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hooper has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hooper's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hernandez has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Hooper
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
72"
26+
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Hooper
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.9
52.9
51.8
Performance Avg
47.4
45
Quality of Victory
42
51
Momentum Score
90
Hooper
Hernandez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.8
45%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
14
7
Body
3
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Hooper
Hernandez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hooper
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
14
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/21 fights
Chin rating based on
18/27 fights
Hooper
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
90
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Hooper
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hooper
Hernandez
Striking3.7 / 6.1Volume3.2 / 5.1Grappling4.6 / 1.2Wrestling3.2 / 0.8Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure7.1 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Hooper
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Hooper
Attacking
7HEAD7BODY6LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Hernandez
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD7BODY6LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hooper targets the head (35% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 35% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (82% of attacks) — Hooper absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hooper
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Hooper · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.7L5.5W5.5L5.5W3.4L4.5W6.5W5.8W5.5W4.9W2.4L2.9L2019-122022-052024-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Hernandez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0106.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.0L5.0W5.7L5.0W3.5L3.9L4.9W5.7L5.8L4.5W4.5W5.8W6.3W6.3L2018-032020-102023-022025-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Hooper · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Alexander HernandezRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

Hernandez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Chase HooperRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Chase Hooper · Alexander Hernandez
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