UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Philadelphia, USA
30 Mar 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Nzechukwu
45%
Craig
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nzechukwu
This is a genuine toss-up — Nzechukwu at 55% vs Craig at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nzechukwu has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nzechukwu's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nzechukwu
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
83"+
Reach
76"
33+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nzechukwu
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.3
49.1
53.2
Performance Avg
50.4
51
Quality of Victory
52
88
Momentum Score
46
Nzechukwu
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
47%
8.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
1
Body
6
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance6
1Clinch3
5Ground0
Nzechukwu
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nzechukwu
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Nzechukwu
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
46
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Nzechukwu
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
6
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nzechukwu
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
NzechukwuCraig
Strike Zones
Nzechukwu
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCraig
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nzechukwu targets the head (88% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the body (67% of attacks) — Nzechukwu absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nzechukwu
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
Nzechukwu · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Craig · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nzechukwu · Last 5
Upcoming
Marcus BuchechaDecision
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L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4Submission
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W · KO · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Chris BarnettRating 6KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11