UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Bantamweight
VS
50%
Cejudo
50%
Talbott
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Henry
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16 – 6
5'4"64" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 65
Payton
Payton Talbott
11 – 1
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak27 yrsSwitch70" reach5'10"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cejudo

This is a genuine toss-up — Cejudo at 50% vs Talbott at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Talbott has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cejudo's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cejudo
Talbott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'10"
64"
Reach
+70"
39
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Cejudo
Talbott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
65.5
57.5
Performance Avg
58.5
54
Quality of Victory
42
97
Momentum Score
86
Cejudo
Talbott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
63%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
26
6
Body
14
3
Leg
4
RangeRange
17Distance32
3Clinch12
0Ground0
Cejudo
Talbott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cejudo
Talbott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
6/12 fights
Cejudo
Talbott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
86
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Cejudo
Talbott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cejudo
Talbott
Striking5.3 / 5.7Volume6.0 / 4.9Grappling1.4 / 2.6Wrestling1.0 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure4.7 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Cejudo
Strike Zones
Talbott
Cejudo
Attacking
11HEAD6BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD14BODY4LEGS44 absorbed
Talbott
Attacking
26HEAD14BODY4LEGS44 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD6BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cejudo targets the head (55% of attacks) — Talbott absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Talbott targets the head (59% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cejudo
RND
Talbott
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cejudo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.1W6.5L6.8L6.1L7.0L2014-122016-042018-082023-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Talbott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W6.2W5.0W6.3L5.5W6.0W2023-112024-032024-062025-012025-062025-12
WinLossTrend

Cejudo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

Talbott · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 6
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Felipe LimaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R1
Yanis GhemmouriRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Cameron SaaimanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

News & Media

Henry Cejudo · Payton Talbott
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