UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
Montreal, Canada
11 Dec 2010
Middleweight
VS
14%
Bongfeldt
86%
Natal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JB
Jesse Bongfeldt
"Water"
16 – 5
6'0"Orthodox45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 3
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Natal

Natal is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Natal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.

Bongfeldt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Natal has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bongfeldt
Natal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
Reach
77"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bongfeldt
Natal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.5
15.2
0.0
Performance Avg
40.5
0
Quality of Victory
30
0
Momentum Score
81
Bongfeldt
Natal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.2
70%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
0
5
Body
0
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance2
3Clinch0
27Ground0
Bongfeldt
Natal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bongfeldt
Natal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
6
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/21 fights
Chin rating based on
17/30 fights
Bongfeldt
Natal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
81
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Bongfeldt
Natal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
22%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bongfeldt
Natal
Striking0.0 / 2.2Volume0.0 / 7.3Grappling0.0 / 2.8Wrestling0.0 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure0.0 / 3.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Bongfeldt
Strike Zones
Natal
Bongfeldt
Attacking
30HEAD5BODY6LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 absorbed
Natal
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD5BODY6LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bongfeldt targets the head (73% of attacks) — Natal absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Natal targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Bongfeldt absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bongfeldt
RND
Natal
0/0R00/0

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Bongfeldt · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Chris WeidmanRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
Upcoming
Rafael Natal
Decision
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

News & Media

Jesse Bongfeldt · Rafael Natal
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