UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Columbus, USA
7 Mar 2009
Welterweight
VS
77%
Brown
23%
Sell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Brown has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Brown's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sell has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Brown
Sell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
45
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brown
Sell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
12.4
54.0
Performance Avg
32.4
52
Quality of Victory
35
78
Momentum Score
50
Brown
Sell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.9
60%
Strike Accuracy
44%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
13 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
0
4
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance0
7Clinch0
9Ground0
Brown
Sell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brown
Sell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/45 fights
Chin rating based on
7/17 fights
Brown
Sell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
50
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Brown
Sell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
50%
13
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brown
Sell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
1.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
BrownSell
Strike Zones
Brown
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedSell
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brown targets the head (83% of attacks) — Sell absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brown
RND
Sell
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Sell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
Sell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · Dec · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · KO · R3
Nate QuarryRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian · 2007-09
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04
L · KO · R2
Scott SmithRating 2.8KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11