UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Los Angeles, USA
4 Aug 2012
Welterweight
VS
56%
Swick
44%
Johnson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Swick
This is a genuine toss-up — Swick at 56% vs Johnson at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Swick's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Swick
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
77"+
Reach
75"
46
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Swick
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.6
17.8
55.0
Performance Avg
48.7
47
Quality of Victory
55
100
Momentum Score
59
Swick
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
36%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Swick
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swick
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
10/30 fights
Swick
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Swick
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Swick
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
SwickJohnson
Strike Zones
Swick
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Swick targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Swick absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Swick
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
Swick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Swick · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Matt BrownRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · 2012-12
W · KO · R2
DaMarques JohnsonRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · Sub · R2
Paulo ThiagoRating 2.8Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
Johnson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Mike SwickRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · Sub · R2
John MaguireRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
W · KO · R1
Clay HarvisonRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · 2011-11
L · KO · R2
Amir SadollahRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03