UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao
Dublin, Ireland
19 Jul 2014
Featherweight
VS
79%
McGregor
21%
Brandao
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:05
Conor
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22 – 6
5'9"74" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 74
DB
Diego Brandao
"DB"
22 – 11
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'7"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McGregor

McGregor is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McGregor's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Brandao has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McGregor
Brandao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
74"+
Reach
64"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
McGregor
Brandao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.4
19.9
68.9
Performance Avg
53.4
67
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
79
McGregor
Brandao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
46%
9.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
8 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
5
3
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance5
0Clinch4
8Ground0
McGregor
Brandao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.5
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McGregor
Brandao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
42
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/28 fights
Chin rating based on
10/33 fights
McGregor
Brandao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
79
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
W · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
McGregor
Brandao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
50%
8
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McGregor
Brandao
Striking9.4 / 2.9Volume3.0 / 3.9Grappling0.5 / 3.5Wrestling0.3 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure7.7 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
McGregor
Strike Zones
Brandao
McGregor
Attacking
15HEAD3BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD4BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Brandao
Attacking
5HEAD4BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD3BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McGregor targets the head (83% of attacks) — Brandao absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Brandao targets the head (56% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McGregor
RND
Brandao
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

McGregor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W6.3W5.1W5.1W5.5W2.1L4.5W5.1W3.4L5.0W3.4L5.3L2013-042015-012016-082021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Brandao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.4W2.8L3.5L4.0W5.0W5.4L2011-122013-042014-072016-01
WinLossTrend

McGregor · Last 5

Upcoming
Max Holloway
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

Brandao · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Katsunori KikunoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
W · R1
Jimy HettesRating 4
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12

News & Media

Conor McGregor · Diego Brandao
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