UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Oct 2020
Middleweight
VS
3%
Townsend
97%
Todorovic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Todorovic
Todorovic is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Todorovic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 56 points.
Todorovic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Townsend's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Todorovic has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Townsend
Todorovic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
74"
40
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Townsend
Todorovic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.5
43.1
0.0
Performance Avg
49.6
0
Quality of Victory
56
0
Momentum Score
13
Townsend
Todorovic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.2
3.4
24%
Strike Accuracy
55%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
30
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground29
Townsend
Todorovic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Townsend
Todorovic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
8
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/33 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Townsend
Todorovic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
13
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Townsend
Todorovic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Townsend
Todorovic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
TownsendTodorovic
Strike Zones
Townsend
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTodorovic
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Townsend targets the head (50% of attacks) — Todorovic absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Todorovic targets the head (94% of attacks) — Townsend absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Townsend
RND
Todorovic
0/0R00/0
Townsend · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Todorovic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Townsend · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Dusko TodorovicRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Devin ClarkRating 5.5Decision
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L · KO · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
Todorovic · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jose Daniel MedinaRating 5Submission
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