UFC 98: Evans vs Machida
Las Vegas, USA
23 May 2009
Middleweight
VS
43%
Sonnen
57%
Miller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CS
Chael Sonnen
29 – 15
6'1"73" reachSouthpaw49 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
DM
Dan Miller
14 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'1"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

This is a genuine toss-up — Sonnen at 43% vs Miller at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Miller throws more volume but Sonnen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sonnen's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Miller has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sonnen
Miller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
73"
Reach
+74"
49
Age
+44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sonnen
Miller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.8
16.9
40.4
Performance Avg
43.7
34
Quality of Victory
42
45
Momentum Score
51
Sonnen
Miller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
37%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch1
6Ground0
Sonnen
Miller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sonnen
Miller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/44 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Sonnen
Miller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Sonnen
Miller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sonnen
Miller
Striking1.0 / 0.9Volume6.7 / 3.6Grappling4.0 / 6.1Wrestling2.8 / 4.3Submission2.9 / 6.7Pressure3.5 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Sonnen
Strike Zones
Miller
Sonnen
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Miller
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sonnen targets the head (56% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Miller targets the head (75% of attacks) — Sonnen absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sonnen
RND
Miller
0/0R00/0

Sonnen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0102.8L4.5W2.8L1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L5.2W4.5W2.1L3.3L5.0W1.5L2005-102009-052011-102013-082013-11
WinLossTrend

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.5W1.5L5.5L2008-092010-022011-032015-07
WinLossTrend

Sonnen · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Rashad EvansRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
W · Sub · R1
Mauricio RuaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
L · KO · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · KO · R2
Anderson SilvaRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01

Miller · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · KO · R1
Jordan MeinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Sub · R3
Ricardo FunchRating 5.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
L · Dec · R3
Rousimar PalharesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03

News & Media

Chael Sonnen · Dan Miller
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