UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Lightweight
VS
52%
Dariush
48%
Moicano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dariush
This is a genuine toss-up — Dariush at 52% vs Moicano at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Moicano throws more volume but Dariush connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dariush's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dariush
Moicano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dariush
Moicano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.9
50.3
50.4
Performance Avg
51.7
39
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
64
Dariush
Moicano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.9
51%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
8
7
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance8
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Dariush
Moicano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dariush
Moicano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
6
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/31 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Dariush
Moicano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
64
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
W · KO · R2
Dariush
Moicano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
62%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
7
9
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dariush
Moicano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.4
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
DariushMoicano
Strike Zones
Dariush
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedMoicano
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dariush targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Moicano targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dariush absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dariush
RND
Moicano
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dariush · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Moicano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Dariush · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 5.3Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
Moicano · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 6.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · KO · R2
Jalin TurnerRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

