UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Chicago, USA
23 Jul 2016
Featherweight
VS
73%
Elkins
27%
Pepey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
GP
Godofredo Pepey
13 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'7"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pepey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Elkins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pepey has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Elkins
Pepey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"
Reach
+73"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Pepey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
16.9
46.3
Performance Avg
47.8
35
Quality of Victory
49
66
Momentum Score
46
Elkins
Pepey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
38%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
18Ground3
Elkins
Pepey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Pepey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
28
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Elkins
Pepey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
46
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Elkins
Pepey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
3
12
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Pepey
Striking3.4 / 2.9Volume6.3 / 2.5Grappling2.8 / 5.3Wrestling1.9 / 3.7Submission1.6 / 6.0Pressure4.5 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Elkins
Strike Zones
Pepey
Elkins
Attacking
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Pepey
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (95% of attacks) — Pepey absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Pepey targets the head (75% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Pepey
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Pepey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.5L4.5W1.5L1.5L5.0W5.0W5.7W6.0L5.0W5.5L1.5L2012-062013-112015-032017-072018-01
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Pepey · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Mirsad BekticRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Shane BurgosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Sub · R1
Mike de la TorreRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Andre FiliRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03

News & Media

Darren Elkins · Godofredo Pepey
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