METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Chicago, USA
23 Jul 2016
Featherweight
VS
72%
Elkins
28%
Pepey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Darren ElkinswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Godofredo Pepey · UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Elkins
→
Actual result
Elkins wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Elkins is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pepey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pepey has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElkinsPepey
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elkins
Pepey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"
Reach
+73"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Pepey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.3
16.9
45.5
Performance Avg
47.8
35
Quality of Victory
49
66
Momentum Score
46
Elkins
Pepey
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
7.0
6.3
Style: Volume
2.5
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
3
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
18Ground3
Elkins
Pepey
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.7
1.6
Submission Style (/10)
6.0
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elkins
Pepey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
28
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
31/41 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Elkins
Pepey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Elkins
Pepey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
80%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
3
12
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elkins
Pepey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
ElkinsPepey
Strike Zones
Elkins
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedPepey
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (95% of attacks) — Pepey absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Pepey targets the head (75% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elkins
RND
Pepey
0/0R00/0
Elkins · Last 5
L · KO · R1
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Pepey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Mirsad BekticKO/TKO
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UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
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