UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Bantamweight
VS
68%
Perez
32%
Alcantara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
Perez holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Alcantara has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Perez throws more volume but Alcantara connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Perez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alcantara has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Perez
Alcantara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+71"
36+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Perez
Alcantara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.4
16.9
56.3
Performance Avg
48.0
49
Quality of Victory
41
100
Momentum Score
49
Perez
Alcantara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.2
40%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
2
Body
5
7
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance8
6Clinch0
0Ground0
Perez
Alcantara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Perez
Alcantara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/32 fights
Chin rating based on
18/45 fights
Perez
Alcantara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
49
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Perez
Alcantara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Perez
Alcantara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
PerezAlcantara
Strike Zones
Perez
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedAlcantara
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Perez targets the legs (47% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Alcantara targets the body (63% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Perez
RND
Alcantara
0/0R00/0
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Alcantara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Perez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
W · Sub · R2
Johnny EduardoRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
Alcantara · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03