UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira
Stockholm, Sweden
28 May 2017
Welterweight
VS
76%
Till
24%
Ayari
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Till
Till is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Till has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Ayari throws more volume but Till connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Till's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Till
Ayari
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
73"
33
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Till
Ayari
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.5
9.7
44.3
Performance Avg
25.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
35
Momentum Score
28
Till
Ayari
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
1
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance3
0Clinch5
0Ground0
Till
Ayari
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Till
Ayari
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Till
Ayari
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
28
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Till
Ayari
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Till
Ayari
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
TillAyari
Strike Zones
Till
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedAyari
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Till targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ayari absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ayari targets the head (63% of attacks) — Till absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Till
RND
Ayari
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Till · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Ayari · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Till · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Dricus Du PlessisRating 5.9Submission
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · Sub · R3
Derek BrunsonRating 3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
L · Dec · R5
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
W · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 4.8Decision
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Jorge MasvidalRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Ayari · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Luigi VendraminiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Darren TillRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
W · Dec · R3
Jim WallheadRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09