UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Welterweight
VS
62%
Rakhmonov
38%
Thompson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:56
Shavkat
Shavkat Rakhmonov
"Nomad"
19 – 0
6'1"77" reachOrthodox31 yrs7-fight win streakSubmission Hunter
CFR 76
Stephen
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Thompson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Thompson throws more volume but Rakhmonov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Thompson has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rakhmonov
Thompson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
75"
31+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rakhmonov
Thompson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
76.4
46.3
68.5
Performance Avg
48.9
48
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
45
Rakhmonov
Thompson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
64%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
1
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
1Clinch0
13Ground2
Rakhmonov
Thompson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
4.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rakhmonov
Thompson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
32
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/19 fights
Chin rating based on
22/26 fights
Rakhmonov
Thompson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
7-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Rakhmonov
Thompson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
5
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rakhmonov
Thompson
Striking3.4 / 6.1Volume3.1 / 5.1Grappling6.1 / 1.2Wrestling4.2 / 0.8Submission7.1 / 0.0Pressure9.0 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
4.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Rakhmonov
Strike Zones
Thompson
Rakhmonov
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Thompson
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rakhmonov targets the head (94% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Thompson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Rakhmonov absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rakhmonov
RND
Thompson
0/0R00/0

Rakhmonov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.0W5.2W5.8W5.9W6.5W5.8W6.0W2020-102022-022023-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Thompson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2.1L6.0W5.5W5.7L6.6L6.0W4.8L5.2L7.2L2012-022015-072019-032023-122025-07
WinLossTrend

Rakhmonov · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryRating 6
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R3
Geoff NealRating 6.5
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Neil MagnyRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · KO · R1
Carlston HarrisRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02

Thompson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 4.8
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · KO · R4
Kevin HollandRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12

News & Media

Shavkat Rakhmonov · Stephen Thompson
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