★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
22 Oct 2022
Bantamweight
VS
60%
Sterling
40%
Dillashaw
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:44
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
5'7"71" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 54
TD
TJ Dillashaw
18 – 5
Striker40 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sterling

Sterling holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Dillashaw has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dillashaw has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Dillashaw throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dillashaw has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sterling
Dillashaw
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
67"
36+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Dillashaw
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
36.6
54.2
Performance Avg
62.3
38
Quality of Victory
56
71
Momentum Score
100
Sterling
Dillashaw
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
3
8
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance5
1Clinch0
32Ground0
Sterling
Dillashaw
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.8
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sterling
Dillashaw
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
18/23 fights
Sterling
Dillashaw
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Sterling
Dillashaw
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
62%
2
KO / TKO Wins
7
4
Submission Wins
1
12
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sterling
Dillashaw
Striking2.7 / 6.8Volume6.5 / 4.5Grappling3.2 / 1.5Wrestling2.3 / 1.1Submission2.2 / 0.8Pressure4.7 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Sterling
Strike Zones
Dillashaw
Sterling
Attacking
32HEAD8BODY2LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 absorbed
Dillashaw
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY1LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD8BODY2LEGS42 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (76% of attacks) — Dillashaw absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Dillashaw targets the head (60% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sterling
RND
Dillashaw
0/0R00/0

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Dillashaw · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5W5.4W5.5L4.5W4.5W6.2W6.1W3.0L6.0W3.1L2011-122013-102016-012019-012022-10
WinLossTrend

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Dillashaw · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Aljamain SterlingRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
W · Dec · R5
Cory SandhagenRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Henry CejudoRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
W · KO · R2
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11

News & Media

Aljamain Sterling · TJ Dillashaw
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