METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
East Rutherford, USA
5 May 2012
Lightweight
VS
55%
Ferguson
45%
Johnson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Michael JohnsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tony Ferguson · UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 55% vs Johnson at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonJohnson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
73"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
36.8
54.2
Performance Avg
42.5
49
Quality of Victory
38
52
Momentum Score
35
Ferguson
Johnson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
4.1
3.4
Style: Volume
6.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
18
5
Body
8
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance26
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Ferguson
Johnson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
32/45 fights
Ferguson
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
35
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Ferguson
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
38%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
FergusonJohnson
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (35% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 35% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
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