METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
East Rutherford, USA
5 May 2012
Lightweight
VS
55%
Ferguson
45%
Johnson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Michael JohnsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tony Ferguson · UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 55% vs Johnson at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
FergusonJohnson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
73"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
36.8
54.2
Performance Avg
42.5
49
Quality of Victory
38
52
Momentum Score
35
Ferguson
Johnson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
18
5
Body
8
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance26
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Ferguson
Johnson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
32/45 fights
Ferguson
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
35
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Ferguson
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
38%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
FergusonJohnson
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (35% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 35% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
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UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
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L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
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