UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
East Rutherford, USA
5 May 2012
Lightweight
VS
55%
Ferguson
45%
Johnson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
Well-Rounded39 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'10"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ferguson

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 55% vs Johnson at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Johnson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferguson
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
73"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
36.8
54.2
Performance Avg
42.5
49
Quality of Victory
38
52
Momentum Score
35
Ferguson
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
39%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
18
5
Body
8
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance26
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Ferguson
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
32/45 fights
Ferguson
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
35
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Ferguson
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
38%
3
KO / TKO Wins
6
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Johnson
Striking3.3 / 4.8Volume3.4 / 6.0Grappling3.8 / 1.5Wrestling2.7 / 1.1Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Johnson
Ferguson
Attacking
6HEAD5BODY6LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD8BODY1LEGS27 absorbed
Johnson
Attacking
18HEAD8BODY1LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD5BODY6LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (35% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 35% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ferguson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.0W4.5W5.6L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W5.7W5.8W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.2W5.6L6.9L6.5L3.5L3.4L4.7L7.2L2.3L2011-062014-082016-112021-052024-08
WinLossTrend

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2
Decision
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L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
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L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4
Submission
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L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5
KO/TKO
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Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
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W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
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L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
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News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Michael Johnson
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