UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Houston, USA
15 May 2021
Featherweight
VS
35%
Aguilar
65%
Lutz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
KA
Kevin Aguilar
"Angel of Death"
17 – 5
5'7"73" reachOrthodox37 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 11
TL
Tucker Lutz
"Top Gun"
12 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide31 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'8"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lutz

Lutz holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Aguilar has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Aguilar throws more volume but Lutz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Aguilar
Lutz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
73"+
Reach
72"
37
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aguilar
Lutz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.8
19.7
28.3
Performance Avg
25.0
25
Quality of Victory
25
35
Momentum Score
17
Aguilar
Lutz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
40%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
21
8
Body
5
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
25Distance30
3Clinch1
0Ground1
Aguilar
Lutz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aguilar
Lutz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Aguilar
Lutz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
17
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Aguilar
Lutz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aguilar
Lutz
Striking0.7 / 0.5Volume8.7 / 8.5Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Aguilar
Strike Zones
Lutz
Aguilar
Attacking
19HEAD8BODY1LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD5BODY6LEGS32 absorbed
Lutz
Attacking
21HEAD5BODY6LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD8BODY1LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aguilar targets the head (68% of attacks) — Lutz absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Lutz targets the head (66% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 66% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aguilar
RND
Lutz
0/0R00/0

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.6W4.5W6.2L2.0L5.5L5.5L2018-112019-032019-062020-022020-062021-05
WinLossTrend

Lutz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W6.5L3.6L6.0L2021-052021-112023-032023-07
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tucker LutzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Charles RosaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · KO · R1
Zubaira TukhugovRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Enrique BarzolaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03

Lutz · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Dec · R3
Kevin AguilarRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05

News & Media

Kevin Aguilar · Tucker Lutz
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