UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
San Jose, USA
26 Jul 2014
Light Heavyweight
VS
62%
Johnson
38%
Nogueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:44
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
Johnson holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Nogueira has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nogueira has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
78"+
Reach
75"
42+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.1
14.4
60.4
Performance Avg
47.0
55
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
20
Johnson
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
42%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.6
11 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Johnson
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
26
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
15 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
13/33 fights
Johnson
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Johnson
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
85%
67%
11
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Nogueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.6
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
JohnsonNogueira
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedNogueira
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Nogueira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Daniel CormierRating 2.1Submission
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · KO · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Jimi ManuwaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Daniel CormierRating 2.8Submission
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mauricio RuaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R3
Ryan BaderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Patrick CumminsRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · 2016-05