METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Welterweight
VS
83%
Edwards
17%
Lopez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Justin EdwardswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jorge Lopez · UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Edwards
→
Actual result
Edwards wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Edwards is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Edwards has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EdwardsLopez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Edwards
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.9
2.7
35.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
26
Momentum Score
0
Edwards
Lopez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
0.0
4.6
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
19
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
4Clinch1
1Ground19
Edwards
Lopez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Edwards
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
Edwards
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Edwards
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
EdwardsLopez
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedLopez
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the body (80% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the head (90% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
Edwards · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Joe ProctorSubmission
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Lopez · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahDecision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09