UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Welterweight
VS
83%
Edwards
17%
Lopez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
Edwards is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Edwards has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Lopez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Edwards
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
43
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.9
2.7
35.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
26
Momentum Score
0
Edwards
Lopez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
63%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
19
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
4Clinch1
1Ground19
Edwards
Lopez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Edwards
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
Edwards
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Edwards
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
EdwardsLopez
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedLopez
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the body (80% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the head (90% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Lopez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Joe ProctorRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · Dec · R3
Ramsey NijemRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · 2013-08
W · Sub · R1
Josh NeerRating 5Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 5.5Decision
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11
Lopez · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09