UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Lightweight
VS
29%
Riddell
71%
Moicano
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moicano
Moicano is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moicano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Riddell has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Riddell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Riddell
Moicano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Riddell
Moicano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.7
50.3
37.9
Performance Avg
51.7
25
Quality of Victory
43
50
Momentum Score
64
Riddell
Moicano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
10
6
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Riddell
Moicano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Riddell
Moicano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Riddell
Moicano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
64
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
W · KO · R2
Riddell
Moicano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
62%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
7
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riddell
Moicano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.4
1.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
9.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
RiddellMoicano
Strike Zones
Riddell
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedMoicano
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riddell targets the head (43% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Moicano targets the head (100% of attacks) — Riddell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riddell
RND
Moicano
0/0R00/0
Riddell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Moicano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Riddell · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 2.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
L · Sub · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.7Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
Moicano · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 6.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · KO · R2
Jalin TurnerRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04