Ryan LaFlare vs Roan Carneiro — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie

Brooklyn, USA

11 Feb 2017

Welterweight

48%

LaFlare

52%

Carneiro

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Ryan LaFlare

14 – 3

6'1"74" reachSouthpaw42 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 15

Roan Carneiro

"Jucao"

21 – 11

Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"

CFR 16

★ Official Result

Ryan LaFlarewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Roan Carneiro · UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Carneiro

→

Actual result

LaFlare wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — LaFlare at 48% vs Carneiro at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Carneiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Risk flags

LaFlare's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Carneiro has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

LaFlareCarneiro

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

LaFlare

Carneiro

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"+

Height

5'11"

74"

Reach

+76"

42+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

LaFlare

Carneiro

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

14.9

16.1

43.0

Performance Avg

41.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

LaFlare

Carneiro

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.4

/ 10

3.4

/ 10

2.1

Style: Pressure

4.8

9.4

Style: Volume

4.9

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

7Distance4

1Clinch2

1Ground6

LaFlare

Carneiro

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.4

/ 10

3.2

/ 10

1.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.2

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

2.5

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

LaFlare

Carneiro

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.5 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

2 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

10/17 fights

Chin rating based on

9/32 fights

LaFlare

Carneiro

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

L · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

LaFlare

Carneiro

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

LaFlare

Carneiro

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.4

2.4

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.2

1.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.2

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.5

2.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.8

9.4

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.9

LaFlare

Strike Zones

Carneiro

LaFlare

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

12 absorbed

Carneiro

Attacking

12 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯LaFlare targets the head (44% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 44% of strikes there

🎯Carneiro targets the head (83% of attacks) — LaFlare absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

LaFlare

RND

Carneiro

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

LaFlare · Last 5

L · KO · R3

Anthony Rocco Martin

KO/TKO

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

W · Dec · R3

Alex Garcia

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04

L · KO · R2

Alex Oliveira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07

W · Dec · R3

Roan Carneiro

Decision

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02

W · Dec · R3

Mike Pierce

Decision

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12

Carneiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Ryan LaFlare

Decision

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02

W · Dec · R3

Kenny Robertson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09

L · KO · R1

Derek Brunson

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02

W · Sub · R1

Mark Munoz

Submission

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02

L · Dec · R3

Ryo Chonan

Decision

UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09

News & Media

Ryan LaFlare · Roan Carneiro

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