UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
Brooklyn, USA
11 Feb 2017
Welterweight
VS
48%
LaFlare
52%
Carneiro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Carneiro
This is a genuine toss-up — LaFlare at 48% vs Carneiro at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Carneiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: LaFlare throws more volume but Carneiro connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
LaFlare's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Carneiro has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
LaFlare
Carneiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
+76"
42+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
LaFlare
Carneiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.9
16.1
43.0
Performance Avg
41.6
25
Quality of Victory
40
60
Momentum Score
59
LaFlare
Carneiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
10
4
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance4
1Clinch2
1Ground6
LaFlare
Carneiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
LaFlare
Carneiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
LaFlare
Carneiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
59
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
LaFlare
Carneiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
LaFlare
Carneiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
2.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
9.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
LaFlareCarneiro
Strike Zones
LaFlare
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedCarneiro
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯LaFlare targets the head (44% of attacks) — Carneiro absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Carneiro targets the head (83% of attacks) — LaFlare absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
LaFlare
RND
Carneiro
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
LaFlare · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Carneiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
LaFlare · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Roan CarneiroRating 4.5Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Mike PierceRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
Carneiro · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02
W · Dec · R3
Kenny RobertsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02
W · Sub · R1
Mark MunozRating 5Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Ryo ChonanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 88: Breakthrough · 2008-09