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UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
New Orleans, USA
17 Sept 2011
Welterweight
VS
49%
Shields
51%
Ellenberger
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:53
JS
Jake Shields
319
6'0"72" reachOrthodox47 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 15
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
3115
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 16
★ Official Result
Jake EllenbergerwinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:53
def. Jake Shields · UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ellenberger
Actual result
Ellenberger wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Shields at 49% vs Ellenberger at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ellenberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Risk flags

Ellenberger has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
ShieldsEllenberger
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
Strike Accuracy
Shields
Ellenberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
71"
47
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Shields
Ellenberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.8
15.7
37.9
Performance Avg
45.7
25
Quality of Victory
45
65
Momentum Score
56
Shields
Ellenberger
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
1.7
Style: Pressure
5.6
9.1
Style: Volume
3.4
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch2
0Ground5
Shields
Ellenberger
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Shields
Ellenberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
0
Moderate
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
7
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
Strikes absorbed / min
8/40 fights
Chin rating based on
21/46 fights
Shields
Ellenberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
56
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Shields
Ellenberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
60%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Shields
Ellenberger
Striking1.1 / 6.0Volume9.1 / 3.4Grappling2.4 / 1.5Wrestling1.7 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure1.7 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
1.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
9.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Shields
Strike Zones
Ellenberger
Shields
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Ellenberger
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Shields targets the body (100% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (78% of attacks) — Shields absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Shields
RND
Ellenberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Shields · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Hector Lombard
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03
W · Dec · R5
Demian Maia
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron Woodley
Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
Upcoming
Ed Herman
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
W · Dec · R3
Yoshihiro Akiyama
Decision
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · 2012-02

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan Barberena
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben Saunders
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike Perry
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge Masvidal
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt Brown
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

News & Media

Jake Shields · Jake Ellenberger
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