UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Lightweight
VS
33%
Aubin-Mercier
67%
Burns
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
Gilbert
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22 – 10
Well-Rounded5-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 40

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Burns

Burns holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Aubin-Mercier has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Burns throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Burns has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
37+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
39.8
49.0
Performance Avg
48.1
43
Quality of Victory
40
61
Momentum Score
28
Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
28
3
Body
7
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance17
2Clinch4
0Ground14
Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.2 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
25/32 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
28
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
53%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aubin-Mercier
Burns
Striking2.6 / 3.2Volume3.5 / 4.9Grappling5.3 / 3.8Wrestling3.7 / 2.6Submission5.7 / 3.3Pressure6.8 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Aubin-Mercier
Strike Zones
Burns
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD7BODY0LEGS35 absorbed
Burns
Attacking
28HEAD7BODY0LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (75% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (80% of attacks) — Aubin-Mercier absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aubin-Mercier
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Burns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.2W5.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L5.2W5.2W2.4L4.5W6.4W4.5W5.6W5.0W4.5W3.9L5.1W7.4L5.6W4.5W6.6L5.5L6.6L3.6L4.5L2014-072018-042020-052024-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

Burns · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Mike MalottRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Sean BradyRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

News & Media

Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Gilbert Burns
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