UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
Belem, Brazil
3 Feb 2018
Flyweight
VS
43%
Figueiredo
57%
Morales
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morales
This is a genuine toss-up — Figueiredo at 43% vs Morales at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Morales has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Morales throws more volume but Figueiredo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Figueiredo's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Figueiredo
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
68"
Reach
+69"
38
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Figueiredo
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.4
75.6
57.9
Performance Avg
65.6
50
Quality of Victory
69
55
Momentum Score
98
Figueiredo
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
3
2
Body
2
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance7
0Clinch0
8Ground0
Figueiredo
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Figueiredo
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/31 fights
Chin rating based on
5/17 fights
Figueiredo
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
98
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Figueiredo
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Figueiredo
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
FigueiredoMorales
Strike Zones
Figueiredo
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedMorales
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Figueiredo targets the head (89% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (43% of attacks) — Figueiredo absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Figueiredo
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Figueiredo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Figueiredo · Last 5
Upcoming
Song YadongUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
Morales · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Sub · R2
Alibi IdirisRating 5.2Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Eric SheltonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
W · Sub · R1
Robert SanchezRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08