METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Welterweight
VS
54%
Matthews
46%
Magny
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:08
★ Official Result
Neil MagnywinsSubmissionR3 · 3:08
def. Jake Matthews · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Matthews
→
Actual result
Magny wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 54% vs Magny at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Magny has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Magny has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MatthewsMagny
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Matthews
Magny
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+80"
31+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Magny
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
47.5
48.3
Performance Avg
47.4
37
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
75
Matthews
Magny
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance4
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Matthews
Magny
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Magny
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
6
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
37/46 fights
Matthews
Magny
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
75
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Matthews
Magny
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
6
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
14
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Magny
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
MatthewsMagny
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedMagny
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Magny absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Magny targets the head (83% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Magny
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Magny · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Magny · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Yaroslav AmosovRating 3.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08