UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Welterweight
VS
54%
Matthews
46%
Magny
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:08
Jake
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
22 – 8
5'11"73" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 55
Neil
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31 – 15
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'3"
CFR 48

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Matthews

This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 54% vs Magny at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Magny has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Magny has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Matthews
Magny
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+80"
31+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Magny
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
47.5
48.3
Performance Avg
47.4
37
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
75
Matthews
Magny
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance4
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Matthews
Magny
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Magny
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
6
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
37/46 fights
Matthews
Magny
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
75
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Matthews
Magny
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
42%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
6
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
14

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matthews
Magny
Striking2.0 / 4.2Volume5.0 / 6.0Grappling4.3 / 2.4Wrestling3.0 / 1.7Submission4.0 / 1.3Pressure5.2 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Matthews
Strike Zones
Magny
Matthews
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Magny
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Magny absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Magny targets the head (83% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matthews
RND
Magny
0/0R00/0

Matthews · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.2W1.5L4.2W5.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W5.3W5.0W4.0L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1L5.2W6.0L6.0W7.6L5.6W5.2W6.1W4.6L2014-062016-112020-022023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Magny · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W4.6W5.2W4.5W5.5W5.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W4.8W5.5W1.5L4.5W1.7L4.5W5.0W3.9L5.3W4.5W4.8W6.3L5.5W5.1W4.8L6.4W1.7L5.6W7.0L7.3W3.6L3.7L5.8W6.5W3.7L2013-022015-082020-032023-082025-12
WinLossTrend

Matthews · Last 5

Upcoming
Muslim Salikhov
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Magny · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Yaroslav AmosovRating 3.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08

News & Media

Jake Matthews · Neil Magny
← Back to fights