UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
23 Jul 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
71%
Krylov
29%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:07
Nikita
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
31 – 11
6'3"77" reachOrthodox34 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 60
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'5"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Krylov

Krylov is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Krylov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Krylov's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Krylov
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
+79"
34+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Krylov
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.8
24.8
52.7
Performance Avg
50.3
50
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
39
Krylov
Gustafsson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.2
60%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
4
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance5
4Clinch0
7Ground0
Krylov
Gustafsson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Krylov
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/42 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Krylov
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Krylov
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
5
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Krylov
Gustafsson
Striking5.3 / 6.1Volume2.5 / 3.5Grappling3.7 / 2.3Wrestling2.6 / 1.6Submission4.2 / 2.0Pressure7.5 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
2.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Krylov
Strike Zones
Gustafsson
Krylov
Attacking
24HEAD1BODY1LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Gustafsson
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD1BODY1LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Krylov targets the head (92% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Krylov absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Krylov
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Krylov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L5.0W2.1L5.0W5.0W5.6W5.2W5.4W1.5L3.3L5.8W5.9L5.3W7.0L2.2L5.0W5.3W5.4W2.5L3.5L6.3W2013-082016-052020-032025-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Krylov · Last 5

Upcoming
Robert Whittaker
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
L · KO · R1
Bogdan GuskovRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Ryan SpannRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

News & Media

Nikita Krylov · Alexander Gustafsson
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