METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Lightweight
VS
49%
Hernandez
51%
Ferreira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:46
★ Official Result
Alexander HernandezwinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:46
def. Diego Ferreira · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferreira
→
Actual result
Hernandez wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 49% vs Ferreira at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Ferreira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HernandezFerreira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hernandez
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
33+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
55.1
47.4
Performance Avg
50.7
42
Quality of Victory
45
90
Momentum Score
87
Hernandez
Ferreira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
2.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
5
2
Body
5
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance12
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Hernandez
Ferreira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hernandez
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Hernandez
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
87
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Hernandez
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
70%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
HernandezFerreira
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (42% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Chase HooperRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Ferreira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12