METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
San Antonio, USA
13 Sept 2025
Lightweight
VS
48%
Hernandez
52%
Ferreira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:46
★ Official Result
Alexander HernandezwinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:46
def. Diego Ferreira · Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferreira
→
Actual result
Hernandez wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 48% vs Ferreira at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HernandezFerreira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hernandez
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
33+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hernandez
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
57.1
47.4
Performance Avg
50.5
42
Quality of Victory
44
90
Momentum Score
100
Hernandez
Ferreira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
6.3
5.1
Style: Volume
4.1
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
5
2
Body
5
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance12
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Hernandez
Ferreira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hernandez
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/27 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Hernandez
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
100
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Hernandez
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
HernandezFerreira
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (42% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · Last 5
Upcoming
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