UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
53%
Njokuani
47%
Leal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Chidi
Chidi Njokuani
"Bang Bang"
25 – 12
6'3"80" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 58
Carlos
Carlos Leal
"The Lion"
23 – 7
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Njokuani

This is a genuine toss-up — Njokuani at 53% vs Leal at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Leal throws more volume but Njokuani connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Njokuani's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Njokuani
Leal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
80"+
Reach
74"
37
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Njokuani
Leal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.8
50.9
47.0
Performance Avg
45.5
45
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
60
Njokuani
Leal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
5.0
55%
Strike Accuracy
50%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
39
11
Body
8
10
Leg
3
RangeRange
49Distance49
2Clinch1
1Ground0
Njokuani
Leal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Njokuani
Leal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/37 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Njokuani
Leal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Njokuani
Leal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Njokuani
Leal
Striking7.0 / 6.0Volume4.2 / 5.0Grappling1.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.7 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.7 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Njokuani
Strike Zones
Leal
Njokuani
Attacking
31HEAD11BODY10LEGS52 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD8BODY3LEGS50 absorbed
Leal
Attacking
39HEAD8BODY3LEGS50 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD11BODY10LEGS52 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Njokuani targets the head (60% of attacks) — Leal absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Leal targets the head (78% of attacks) — Njokuani absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Njokuani
RND
Leal
0/0R00/0

Njokuani · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.4W4.3L5.5L2.5L4.5W5.0W5.8W2.5L6.3L2022-022023-032024-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Leal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0107.1L5.0W2.5L5.6W2024-102025-032025-072026-02
WinLossTrend

Njokuani · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Carlos LealRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Sub · R1
Jake MatthewsRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Rhys McKeeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03

Leal · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Chidi NjokuaniRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

News & Media

Chidi Njokuani · Carlos Leal
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