UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Newark, USA
27 Mar 2010
Welterweight
VS
61%
Riddle
39%
Soto
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Riddle
Riddle holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Soto has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Soto has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Riddle
Soto
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
73"
40
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Riddle
Soto
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
11.5
45.6
Performance Avg
28.3
29
Quality of Victory
25
88
Momentum Score
40
Riddle
Soto
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
70%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
1Clinch2
0Ground1
Riddle
Soto
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Riddle
Soto
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Riddle
Soto
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
40
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R3
Riddle
Soto
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Riddle
Soto
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
RiddleSoto
Strike Zones
Riddle
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSoto
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Riddle targets the head (50% of attacks) — Soto absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Soto targets the head (100% of attacks) — Riddle absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Riddle
RND
Soto
0/0R00/0
Riddle · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Soto · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Riddle · Last 5
Upcoming
Che MillsUFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
Upcoming
Chris ClementsUFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
W · Dec · R3
Henry MartinezRating 4.5Decision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
L · Dec · R3
Lance BenoistRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
Soto · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Daniel RobertsRating 1.5Submission
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
W · Dec · R3
Nick OsipczakRating 4.5Decision
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
L · R3
Matthew RiddleRating 5.5UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03