UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
Las Vegas, USA
1 Mar 2025
Flyweight
VS
43%
Johnson
57%
Temirov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Temirov
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 43% vs Temirov at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Temirov throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Johnson
Temirov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
70"+
Reach
63"
35
Age
+29
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Temirov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
71.8
48.4
Performance Avg
65.5
43
Quality of Victory
43
75
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Temirov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
14
15
Body
1
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance11
14Clinch4
0Ground0
Johnson
Temirov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Temirov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/22 fights
Johnson
Temirov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Johnson
Temirov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Temirov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
JohnsonTemirov
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTemirov
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (43% of attacks) — Temirov absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Temirov targets the head (93% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Temirov
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Temirov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
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W · KO · R2
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Ramazan TemirovRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
Temirov · Last 2
W · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
CJ VergaraRating 5KO/TKO
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