UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Miami, USA
11 Apr 2026
Middleweight
VS
39%
Gastelum
61%
Luque
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:08
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
Luque holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Gastelum has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Luque has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gastelum
Luque
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+75"
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Luque
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
64.9
47.4
Performance Avg
57.2
42
Quality of Victory
50
28
Momentum Score
100
Gastelum
Luque
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
53%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
4
Body
1
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
8Distance8
1Clinch0
0Ground4
Gastelum
Luque
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Luque
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
34
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
25/36 fights
Gastelum
Luque
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Gastelum
Luque
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
82%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
7
9
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Luque
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
GastelumLuque
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedLuque
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (44% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Luque targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Luque
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
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