METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Miami, USA
11 Apr 2026
Middleweight
VS
41%
Gastelum
59%
Luque
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:08
★ Official Result
Vicente LuquewinsSubmissionR1 · 4:08
def. Kelvin Gastelum · UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Luque
→
Actual result
Luque wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gastelum at 41% vs Luque at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Luque has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GastelumLuque
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gastelum
Luque
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+75"
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Luque
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
59.9
47.4
Performance Avg
56.1
42
Quality of Victory
50
28
Momentum Score
79
Gastelum
Luque
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
5.4
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
7.7
6.3
Style: Volume
2.3
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
7 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
4
Body
1
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
8Distance8
1Clinch0
0Ground4
Gastelum
Luque
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
4.1
2
Submission wins
7
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gastelum
Luque
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
32
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
26/36 fights
Gastelum
Luque
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
79
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Gastelum
Luque
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
82%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
7
9
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Luque
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
GastelumLuque
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedLuque
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (44% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Luque targets the head (50% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Luque
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueSubmission
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