UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2022
Featherweight
VS
58%
Erosa
42%
Peterson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Julian
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31 – 14
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 40
SP
Steven Peterson
"Ocho"
19 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'10"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Erosa

This is a genuine toss-up — Erosa at 58% vs Peterson at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Erosa
Peterson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
70"
36
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Erosa
Peterson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
28.4
46.2
Performance Avg
36.0
44
Quality of Victory
35
26
Momentum Score
25
Erosa
Peterson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
40%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
45
Head
43
16
Body
4
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
56Distance47
1Clinch3
5Ground0
Erosa
Peterson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Erosa
Peterson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
90
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
7
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
8/30 fights
Erosa
Peterson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Erosa
Peterson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Erosa
Peterson
Striking3.2 / 4.1Volume3.7 / 6.1Grappling4.4 / 1.6Wrestling3.0 / 1.1Submission4.4 / 0.0Pressure6.2 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Erosa
Strike Zones
Peterson
Erosa
Attacking
45HEAD16BODY1LEGS62 landed
Absorbing
43HEAD4BODY3LEGS50 absorbed
Peterson
Attacking
43HEAD4BODY3LEGS50 landed
Absorbing
45HEAD16BODY1LEGS62 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Erosa targets the head (73% of attacks) — Peterson absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Peterson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Erosa
RND
Peterson
0/0R00/0

Erosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W2.8L1.5L7.0L4.7L6.6W5.7W1.7L6.3W4.5W4.6W1.7L2.8L5.1W5.6W5.5W6.7L3.9L2015-122020-062022-092025-042026-03
WinLossTrend

Peterson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L4.5W5.5L5.7L5.2W5.3W5.7L5.5L2018-022019-032019-092022-022023-03
WinLossTrend

Erosa · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

Peterson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Lucas AlexanderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
W · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · KO · R2
Martin BravoRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07

News & Media

Julian Erosa · Steven Peterson
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