UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2020
Catch Weight
VS
27%
Dunham
73%
Burns
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Burns
Burns is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Burns has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.
Striking split: Dunham throws more volume but Burns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dunham's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Burns has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dunham
Burns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+73"
44
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dunham
Burns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.2
42.8
40.1
Performance Avg
47.5
30
Quality of Victory
57
100
Momentum Score
39
Dunham
Burns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
0.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Dunham
Burns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dunham
Burns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
12
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Dunham
Burns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
39
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Dunham
Burns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
18%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
9
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dunham
Burns
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
DunhamBurns
Strike Zones
Dunham
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBurns
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dunham targets the head (67% of attacks) — Burns absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Burns targets the head (80% of attacks) — Dunham absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dunham
RND
Burns
0/0R00/0
Dunham · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Burns · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Dunham · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Herbert BurnsRating 1.9Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · KO · R2
Francisco TrinaldoRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · KO · R1
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
Upcoming
Beneil DariushDecision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · 2016-09
Burns · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jack JenkinsRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Julio ArceRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Bill AlgeoRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · Sub · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5Submission
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06