UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Austin, USA
2 Dec 2023
Lightweight
VS
48%
Guida
52%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
5'7"70" reachOrthodox44 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 44
Joaquim
Joaquim Silva
"Netto BJJ"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded37 yrsSouthpaw69" reach5'8"
CFR 48

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Silva

This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 48% vs Silva at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Silva has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Guida
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
70"+
Reach
69"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guida
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
47.9
40.7
Performance Avg
46.0
35
Quality of Victory
38
78
Momentum Score
67
Guida
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
36%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
8
3
Body
6
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
8Distance13
3Clinch3
0Ground0
Guida
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Guida
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
67
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Guida
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
43%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
5
Submission Wins
0
11
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Guida
Silva
Striking2.1 / 5.5Volume5.9 / 5.7Grappling3.7 / 1.4Wrestling2.6 / 1.0Submission2.8 / 0.0Pressure4.2 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Guida
Strike Zones
Silva
Guida
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY4LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD6BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Silva
Attacking
8HEAD6BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY4LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (36% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 36% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (50% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Guida
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W5.7L5.9W3.4L1.6L5.2W5.6L5.0W6.5L5.4W2015-092018-012021-062023-122025-09
WinLossTrend

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Silva · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Claudio PuellesRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Drakkar KloseRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · KO · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
W · KO · R2
Jesse RonsonRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10

News & Media

Clay Guida · Joaquim Silva
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