UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Apr 2014
Heavyweight
VS
51%
Nogueira
49%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:37
AR
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34 – 10
6'3"77" reachOrthodox49 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
Knockout Artist49 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nogueira

This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 51% vs Nelson at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nogueira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nogueira
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
73"
49
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
18.5
49.3
Performance Avg
55.6
52
Quality of Victory
61
91
Momentum Score
26
Nogueira
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
18
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
12Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Nogueira
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.3
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Nogueira
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
26
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Nogueira
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
89%
1
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira
Nelson
Striking2.9 / 9.8Volume4.1 / 1.8Grappling4.2 / 0.3Wrestling2.9 / 0.2Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Nogueira
Strike Zones
Nelson
Nogueira
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
18HEAD1BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (95% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0104.5W5.2W2.1L4.5W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W2.1L1.5L5.5L2007-072009-082011-122014-042015-08
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R2
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
W · Sub · R2
Dave HermanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira · Roy Nelson
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