Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Roy Nelson — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

11 Apr 2014

Heavyweight

51%

Nogueira

49%

Nelson

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 3:37

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

"Minotauro"

34 – 10

6'3"77" reachOrthodox50 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 19

Roy Nelson

"Big Country"

22 – 14

Knockout Artist50 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"

CFR 19

★ Official Result

Roy NelsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:37

def. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira · UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Nogueira

→

Actual result

Nelson wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Nogueira at 51% vs Nelson at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Nogueira's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

NogueiraNelson

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Nogueira

Nelson

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"+

Height

6'0"

77"+

Reach

73"

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Nogueira

Nelson

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

19.4

18.5

49.3

Performance Avg

55.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Nogueira

Nelson

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.9

/ 10

9.8

/ 10

5.6

Style: Pressure

7.6

4.1

Style: Volume

1.8

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

8 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

12Distance18

0Clinch0

0Ground1

Nogueira

Nelson

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.2

/ 10

0.3

/ 10

2.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.2

4.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Nogueira

Nelson

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.3 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/44 fights

Chin rating based on

19/36 fights

Nogueira

Nelson

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

L · Sub · R2

W · Sub · R2

L · Sub · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R5

Nogueira

Nelson

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

60%

89%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nogueira

Nelson

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

9.8

4.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.3

2.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.2

4.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.6

4.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

1.8

Nogueira

Strike Zones

Nelson

Nogueira

Attacking

12 landed

Absorbing

19 absorbed

Nelson

Attacking

19 landed

Absorbing

12 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Nelson targets the head (95% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nogueira

RND

Nelson

0/0R00/0

0/0R20/0

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Stefan Struve

Decision

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08

L · KO · R1

Roy Nelson

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04

L · Sub · R2

Fabricio Werdum

Submission

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06

W · Sub · R2

Dave Herman

Submission

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10

L · Sub · R1

Frank Mir

Submission

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Alexander Volkov

Decision

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04

W · KO · R2

Antonio Silva

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09

L · Dec · R3

Derrick Lewis

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07

W · Dec · R3

Jared Rosholt

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02

L · Dec · R5

Josh Barnett

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira · Roy Nelson

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