UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
46%
Lawler
54%
Price
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Price
This is a genuine toss-up — Lawler at 46% vs Price at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Price throws more volume but Lawler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lawler's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Price has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lawler
Price
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
44
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lawler
Price
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
48.4
51.0
Performance Avg
46.0
45
Quality of Victory
49
90
Momentum Score
65
Lawler
Price
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
8 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
4Clinch1
0Ground0
Lawler
Price
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawler
Price
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/46 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Lawler
Price
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
90
65
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lawler
Price
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
75%
8
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lawler
Price
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
LawlerPrice
Strike Zones
Lawler
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedPrice
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lawler targets the head (100% of attacks) — Price absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Price targets the body (50% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lawler
RND
Price
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Price · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
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W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Price · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
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L · KO · R1
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Jacobe SmithRating 5.1Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9Decision
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