METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Flyweight
VS
49%
Elliott
51%
Nicolau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matheus NicolauwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Tim Elliott · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nicolau
→
Actual result
Nicolau wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Elliott at 49% vs Nicolau at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Elliott's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ElliottNicolau
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Elliott
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
66"
39
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Elliott
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.9
38.0
38.0
Performance Avg
44.7
33
Quality of Victory
32
43
Momentum Score
49
Elliott
Nicolau
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
3.5
Style: Pressure
3.9
6.5
Style: Volume
7.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
7
4
Body
6
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance14
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Elliott
Nicolau
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.1
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
3.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Elliott
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
32
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/36 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Elliott
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
49
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Elliott
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Elliott
Nicolau
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
ElliottNicolau
Strike Zones
Elliott
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedNicolau
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Elliott targets the head (59% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the head (50% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Elliott
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0
Elliott · Last 5
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezNoche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegDecision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraSubmission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevSubmission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
Nicolau · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03