UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Flyweight
VS
49%
Elliott
51%
Nicolau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tim
Tim Elliott
22 – 14
5'7"66" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Matheus
Matheus Nicolau
19 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'6"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nicolau

This is a genuine toss-up — Elliott at 49% vs Nicolau at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Elliott throws more volume but Nicolau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Elliott's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nicolau has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Elliott
Nicolau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
66"
Reach
66"
39
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Elliott
Nicolau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
38.0
37.9
Performance Avg
44.7
33
Quality of Victory
32
43
Momentum Score
49
Elliott
Nicolau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
7
4
Body
6
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance14
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Elliott
Nicolau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elliott
Nicolau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
32
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/36 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Elliott
Nicolau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
49
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Elliott
Nicolau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elliott
Nicolau
Striking0.9 / 2.7Volume6.5 / 7.0Grappling4.1 / 2.9Wrestling2.9 / 2.0Submission3.0 / 1.4Pressure3.5 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Elliott
Strike Zones
Nicolau
Elliott
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Nicolau
Attacking
7HEAD6BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elliott targets the head (59% of attacks) — Nicolau absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Nicolau targets the head (50% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elliott
RND
Nicolau
0/0R00/0

Elliott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.2W2.6L5.5L3.5L4.5W4.5W5.7L5.6W4.6W5.4L5.6W5.2W6.1L2012-052016-122020-052023-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Nicolau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L6.2W4.6W4.5W5.4W2.3L3.4L6.6L2015-112018-072022-032024-042024-10
WinLossTrend

Elliott · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

Nicolau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Alex PerezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Brandon RoyvalRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · KO · R2
Matt SchnellRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

News & Media

Tim Elliott · Matheus Nicolau
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